The website i09 has an interesting article: Is Facebook Really Doomed to Die?
They ask a number of experts what the think the fate of Facebook will be, with answers ranging from “it will be gone in a matter of years” to a contention that it will “replace regular email and instant messaging as the main way that people communicate with their friends,” becoming kind of “the Ma Bell of the 21st Century.”
This is all interesting speculation, but what does it mean for nonprofits? I would argue, strongly that it means nothing. It doesn’t mean anything at all.
You can’t do any effective communication decision making now based on what might or might not happen with Facebook in a few years. This is the type of article that gets nonprofits scared about investing any effort in social media: Why start if it’s just going to be gone in a year? Or, alternately, deciding foolishly to give up email or print mail to devote more time to Facebook: Why not? It’s Ma Bell of the 21st Century!
But, honestly, what else might change in a couple of years? Likely, stuff that you’ve never even considered will be diffferent. So all you can do technology-wise is look at what’s useful now and what’s likely to continue to be useful in a year from now if things continue in a typical direction. Cross your fingers, and prepare to handle changes as they come.